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National Times

Risks and unintended consequences

June 9, 2010

Opinion

The impact of the Rudd government's announcement of an additional 40 per cent tax on mining is starting to be felt across the community.

 

As share prices fall, investors withdraw capital, our international reputation is tarnished, projects are suspended or cancelled and jobs are lost, the mining industry is reeling in disbelief from the Rudd government's attack on one of the most important sectors of the Australian economy.

It's the resource industry's equivalent of a drive-by shooting.

Kevin Rudd said that it would stimulate more investment, grow the mining sector and be good for the economy.

It is having precisely the opposite effect.

It is not the first time that this Government has fired first and asked questions later - when it is too late.

Remember the fallout in the financial and mortgage fund markets in October 2008 when Kevin Rudd announced an unlimited guarantee of deposits held in certain financial institutions, but not in others?

There was a run on funds from those institutions not covered by the guarantee, redemption payments were frozen and people were unable to access their money. The Rudd government callously told people to go to Centrelink and ask for welfare assistance!

Just a case of unintended consequences?

The phrase ''unintended consequences'' is said to have been coined by the distinguished American sociologist Professor Robert Merton who listed a number of possible causes including ignorance, error through incorrect analysis of a problem, or immediate interests overriding longer term interests.

In the case of the mining tax, all of the above apply.

The disastrous consequences may not have been intended, but they should have been foreseen.

Equally disturbing is the Prime Minister's behaviour over recent days, which reveals that his strategy for re-election will be to personally attack Tony Abbott and members of the Coalition.

Few could be in any doubt that Labor is preparing the mother of all negative scare campaigns against Tony Abbott, making this year's election campaign one of the most negative and personally vindictive ever seen in this country.

No less than five ministers emerged after the publication of polls on Monday indicating that the Coalition was ahead, to parrot that if the election were held tomorrow Tony Abbott would be the prime minister. Duh.

Foreign Minister Stephen Smith dismissed the latest opinion polls as irrelevant but hinted darkly of the "risks" involved if the Coalition were to be elected.

Risks?  Coming from a government that has proven itself to be not up to the challenge of managing Australia's economic or foreign policy interests?

Before the 2007 election, Rudd ran paid television advertisements claiming that "A number of people have described me as an economic conservative. When it comes to public finances, it's a badge I wear with pride".

No one is admitting to having ever described Kevin Rudd as an economic conservative, but his record in government has proven to be anything but that of a prudent manager of public finances.

The slide into debt and deficit has been the most dramatic turnaround in government finances in peacetime history.

The spending of taxpayers' money has been the most reckless and wasteful in living memory.

The billions of taxpayer dollars wasted on the shockingly rorted school building program and the hundreds of millions of dollars to repair some of the damage caused by the home insulation scheme are emblematic of this Government's maladministration.

The broken promises, the policy backflips, the arrogant refusal to consult with relevant parties or to take responsibility for the damage caused by its incompetence is a hallmark of this government.

The damage is not only on the domestic front.

Stephen Smith is supposed to be the custodian of our international relationships.

Under his stewardship, relations with many of our key trading and strategic partners have worsened, some considerably.

The sudden decision to announce that Australia would instigate legal action against Japan to stop whaling, without consulting Japan, let alone other affected parties, and just days before a meeting of the International Whaling Commission, has been met with dismay from key allies, the United States and New Zealand.

New Zealand Prime Minister John Key said, "If we go to court, the International Court of Justice, as Australia is, we may well lose, and loss means open slather."

New Zealand remains committed to negotiation and a diplomatic solution.

Smith should explain why he failed to obtain the backing of New Zealand and the USA before making the decision to launch high-risk action through the courts.

Another relationship under considerable strain is with India. While the Rudd government cannot be held responsible for the crisis involving attacks on students, it can take action to remove a matter of ongoing concern by agreeing to sell Australian uranium to India.

Smith is reported to have told Indian authorities that it was a decision driven by internal Labor politics, rather than any concern about nuclear proliferation. It seems Australia's national interest did not even rate in the decision.

Smith's announcement of the cancellation of the Australia-India-Japan-US Quadrilateral Initiative, during his press conference with the Chinese Foreign Minister, was another insult, giving the impression that the decision was taken to appease Chinese concerns about India's involvement in the Initiative.

The list of Rudd government diplomatic blunders is long, topped off recently by reports of  Rudd's outburst of foul language and abuse directed at representatives of the Chinese government at the Copenhagen Conference.

It is hard to find where Australia's national interest has been served by either Rudd or Smith given the current poor state of a plethora of international relationships.

There are risks to Australia's economic and foreign policy interests, and they all rest with the Rudd government.

58 comments so far

  • Not a bad summary of their failures. Even so, the only thing scarier than another 3 years of that, is 3 years of Tony Abbott as PM.

    When you lot selected Tony Abbott as your leader, you made yourselves unelectable. We poor punters have nowhere to turn.

    Commenter
    dB
    Date and time
    June 09, 2010, 7:10AM
  • "projects are suspended or cancelled and jobs are lost,"

    Haven't you heard Julie? No projects have actually been cancelled, no jobs have been lost and both Clive Palmer and Xstrata have admitted that such claims were just part of the huge scare campaign your own party has also been at the centre of.
    The Liberal party under Tony Abbott has become a slavish mouthpiece for the mining industry. I mean the poor dears are barely capable of defending themselves are they with only a paltry spare 100 million dollars or so lying around with which to spend on an advertising campaign?

    "The slide into debt and deficit" as you put it helped Australia become the only advanced economy to avoid recession. You remember the GFC? You and your spin-meisters are desperately trying to rewrite history and pretend it didn't happen now because it doesn't fit your narrative.

    The mining companies only have themselves to blame for talking the industry down in the short term as they know that avoiding the tax will be huge windfall for them in the long term.

    Commenter
    pinko eco-fascist stereotype
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    June 09, 2010, 7:34AM
  • Dear Ms. Bishop

    This is by far the silliest critique I have read on the Rudd Govt: a govt I particularly do not like nor have an inclination to vote for. Here are two points you need to acknowledge as most of us are sick of opposition for the sake of opposition and want our country placed ahead of cheap political points:

    1. For all their errors, the response to the GFC by the Rudd govt has been globally acknowledged as one of the best. It was decisive and the decision to guarantee deposits was key

    2. Using the share price as a guide to policy is ludicrous. BP's share price fell: should Americans tell BP not to clean up the mess from its latest oil spill? Of course not. Why should we follow short term share price as a guide to policy?

    For too long miners have been getting a free ride and what did the Howard govt do with the money? Squandered on tax cuts? Our infrastructure is third world at best, we have a future fund whose level is pathetic and hospital and university systems that have been starved

    Rudd Govt has made some inroads into infrastructure but if you are serious about attacking Rudd, then how about mentioning the ETS?

    Oh, that is right, you back flipped on that?

    Also, Mr Abbott has been captured by the the dinosaurs of this country and denies it is happening

    Reading your column today means our choice at the next election is clear: dumb or dumber. Depressing really

    Cheers, james

    Commenter
    James Arvanitakis
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    June 09, 2010, 7:26AM
  • I'm sorry, so are the Libs now saying that we shouldn't be taking on Japan over whaling? Because the party line a month ago was that this was a broken promise from Rudd and co. So Julie, do you want the government to stop whaling in the Southern Ocean Whaling Sanctuary or not? Isn't it a legal issue? Should we only worry about laws which have a direct bearing on our hip pocket? Is that it? So Japan might be offended with us, huh? That's not really going to stop us from trading with South Korea, Taiwan or Mainland China, is it? Those three haven't gone through 15 years of recession, like Japan has, have they? This isn't the 1980's when we all had to make sure we had good trading relationships with Japan because it was the financial powerhouse of Asia, is it?
    And another question. While we all hate Russ, you don't really think Abbott is a more viable option for the country, do you? Do you? Oh my goodness, you do!
    I'm not sure where the Liberals are going, but please say hello to the Democrats when you get there.

    Commenter
    Max
    Location
    Melb
    Date and time
    June 09, 2010, 8:31AM
  • With all the focus on Rudd and Swan's ridiculous mining tax proposal, not too mention the incompetent way they have, and are, handling it, it's worth taking note of some of the other long list of failures of Rudd Labor as highlighted in this piece.

    I'm not talking about the money pit that is the wasteful school halls rip off, or the deadly and disastrous insulation debacle, or the abandoning of the "greatest morale, economic and social challenge of our time."

    No, no, no, there's more, much more, and Julie Bishop correctly points to Rudd's foreign policy failures. Whether it's the tokenistic and pointless ICJ Japan whaling case, the India and uranium issue, or the other things she lists here, it's like a home shopping ad '...but wait, there's more!"

    Millions of dollars in additional aid to African countries to try and buy a seat on the UN security Council, the snubbing of some of our largest trading partners in Japan and South Korea with Rudd's "China love," but contrasted with the Stern Hu trial, not meeting the Dali Lama to appease China, but secretly meeting Chinese diplomats, unilaterally announcing the APEC should be replaced by a forum created from a Rudd thought bubble, the Oceanic Viking and the boat with 250 refugees a "personal call from Rudd to SBY," meant sat in the port in Merak for months...I could go on.

    Really, how anyone but a rusted on Labor supporter could even remotely think that this failure of leadership and of a government should be given another term is just beyond me.

    Commenter
    CJ
    Location
    NSW
    Date and time
    June 09, 2010, 8:19AM
  • It is particularly hard to take seriously the claims of someone - especially on economic and tax matters - who was so inept and lacking in financial knowledge that her own party was forced to remove her from her role as shadow Treasurer.

    Commenter
    DIRECT
    Date and time
    June 09, 2010, 8:14AM
  • Equally disturbing is the Prime Minister's behavior over recent days, which reveals that his strategy for re-election will be to personally attack Tony Abbott and members of the Coalition.
    Gimme me a break Julie. I have been an active participant and watcher of Politics for 40 years. In all that time I have never witnessed a more concerted and personal vilification of a politician than the campaign started immediately after the last election to denigrate and destroy Kevin Rudd. The whole basis of the coalition's strategy was to personally attack and vilify Kevin Rudd and one of the chief proponents and dog whistlers was Abbott closely followed by you. If you and your ilk want to engage in that sort of Politics then don't start whining when the same tactic is used on you. Grow up and start behaving like a creditable alternative.

    Commenter
    David
    Location
    Mackay
    Date and time
    June 09, 2010, 7:49AM
  • Ms Bishop,

    Your initial kow-tow to your base in WA mines is typical - don't worry about facts just blather to create the impression that you actually know something.
    Unfortunately there are no original thoughts here - just a grab-bag of repetitious lies and innuendo, parrot fashion.
    You parrot on and continue to talk down Australia and Australians as an insignificant echo of A Abbott.
    If he's playing the angry pirate then he needs to get himself something other than a budgie to sit on his shoulder.

    Commenter
    Jethro
    Location
    Woy Woy
    Date and time
    June 09, 2010, 8:36AM
  • Well said James; Hear Hear.

    I for one think its pretty scary when mining execs seem to think they choose our Prime Minister - which is how they are behaving. The jelly backboned opposition and their side show of a leader seem unable to be objective in any way in this debate. Leadership isnt about latching on to specal interests and hoping to hell to ride their tantrums into office.

    Julie, if you want to be an alternative try doing some leading.

    Commenter
    Jesse
    Location
    North Sydney
    Date and time
    June 09, 2010, 9:14AM
  • The share prices of the miners have dropped due to falls in the prices of base metals, not due to the mining tax. There has also been some effect from the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.

    It is about time that these sorts of baseless nonsensical articles are cut to pieces and replaced with arguments that present a balanced viewpoint.

    Please stop treating the electorate like fools.

    Commenter
    Fairdinkum
    Location
    NSW
    Date and time
    June 09, 2010, 9:18AM

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