Abbott's ultimatum to stricken Gillard
Opposition leader, Tony Abbott, offers to amend the Migration Act so as to allow offshore processing, as options dry up for the government.
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The Labor veteran would be an ideal interim fix for the floundering party.
Liberal and Labor members of parliament, despite their differences, have quite a lot in common. They share an occupation and all the associated experiences and thought processes.
All parties occasionally face tough times. Pulling together to face such times can be a unifying experience. It was for federal Liberal MPs when we came together, despite bad polling, to ask the people for permission to introduce a GST. Fighting for big change gives a daily shot of adrenalin.
Feeling trapped in a situation that seems hopeless and not knowing what to do is the exact opposite. It sucks out energy and enthusiasm, it breeds pessimism and then discontent. And that's where federal Labor is sitting now.
Age and experience: Simon Crean is perfect as an interim fix for the Labor Party. Photo: Andrew Taylor
Labor under Gillard is polling much lower than it ever was under Rudd. If their polling spooked Labor MPs into guillotining Rudd, imagine how paralysed with fear they must be now.
With a uniform 6 per cent swing they would lose 27 seats. If it was 7 per cent it would become 32 seats. That's nearly half of their team, who, rightly or wrongly, think they are going to lose their job because of Gillard's leadership.
Add to the ones worried about losing their seats another bunch who are worried about losing their ministry, or what they'll get in a shuffle.
Some will already be looking for other jobs, others thinking of retiring, and all will be wondering how to get out of this mess. And they will not be doing it alone. The informal chatting, the odd invitation to dinner . . . it is all going on.
People who otherwise might never share a meal, a drink or a friendly word will come together to survive. As they say, politics makes strange bedfellows. And while all this jostling, posturing and worrying is going on there is less time left to worry about governing.
Labor people are tough operators and they will not sit around in this malaise for much longer. Lemmings to the cliff face is not an image they care for - unless they have sunk low enough to let the independents or Greens dictate who Labor should have as its leader.
Apparently, Labor MPs cannot bring themselves to go back to Kevin Rudd. It seems terribly unfair, because they would have won the last election with him and yet he pays the price. Unless the Gillard coup perpetrators were routed, Labor would be stuck trying to market as a happy family a bunch that make Lizzie Borden look like Alice in Wonderland. It would lack all credibility.
Neither Bill Shorten nor Greg Combet is seen by the electorate as having enough experience yet. Rightly or not, a win for Shorten would be seen by an already cynical electorate as the final reward for backroom plotting.
If either is half smart they will hold back in their own interest. For the young and restless to suggest they have the capacity to drag Labor back from this abyss would reveal the kind of ego you need to be a leader, but not the self-awareness.
So if Labor cannot make peace with Rudd and the electorate has had enough of experiments, where does it go?
There are two obvious choices. One is Stephen Smith. He is capable, calm and despite extensive parliamentary experience he is still seen as a fresh face. He seems mentally strong and is softly spoken. The electorate could warm to all that as a very pleasant change.
He would need to loosen up a bit. Calmness is a good thing but we do like to see a different demeanour when you win the lottery from that which overtakes you when your dog dies.
The other choice is Simon Crean. Age and experience are invaluable when you are in a mess. Crean has gained his over a long haul with some hard knocks on the way. He has earned a fair deal of respect. He has got a bit of Bob Hawke about him. I know some former National Party people who thought he was a straight talker when he had responsibility for rural and regional affairs.
Because he is older and thus not planning to be there for another decade he has three other advantages. First, he would be less beholden to the wheeler-dealers. Second, it would allow the younger talent to be saved the scarring that will come with the job from now until the election. Third, the electorate would see him as a genuine team player rising to help the party (and the nation) in time of need. A good part of Gillard's problem was that she was seen as a backstabbing opportunist.
In far less dire circumstances, Gillard said Labor was a good government that had gone off the rails. Now it is a train wreck. Crean's pitch should be that the electorate will not tolerate people who occupy the position of government but do not govern. They want age, experience and a much safer pair of hands.
Of course, just a change at the top will not solve all Labor's problems. They need a fairly decent shuffle and a new deputy PM to boot.
When that's done they can start fixing what Gillard said she would, but in fact made worse: namely stopping the boats. To do that, Labor should reintroduce a form of temporary protection.
The Greens wouldn't like it, but so what - standing up to them didn't do Ted Baillieu any harm. And being beholden to the Greens is one of the things that has landed Gillard in the mess she's in.
Amanda Vanstone was a minister in the Howard government.
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