Former Liberal leader Brendan Nelson with the candidate for his seat of Bradfield, Paul Fletcher, and a coalition of resident action groups protesting against planning policy in NSW.

Former Liberal leader Brendan Nelson with the candidate for his seat of Bradfield, Paul Fletcher, and a coalition of resident action groups protesting against planning policy in NSW. Photo: Dean Sewell

So Bradfield has a bright new Liberal candidate tipped to become a high-flyer. The question is whether the selection of Paul Fletcher, and the array of strong contenders who missed out, can be used to force some further renewal in the federal party.

NSW Liberals are being left behind by their Victorian brothers and sisters in renewal. In the southern state, an impressive new line up has emerged. Banker and former Peter Costello staffer Kelly O'Dwyer is set to run in Costello's seat of Higgins (no one except Peter knows whether that will be at the election or at a byelection). Another banker, Josh Frydenberg, will take Petro Georgiou's place in Kooyong when the election rolls around. Then there is Alan Tudge, who formerly worked with Noel Pearson, in Aston and Daniel Tehan, son of the late Marie Tehan, who served in the Kennett ministry, in Wannon, both good candidates for these Liberal seats. Sarah Henderson, former journalist and commercial lawyer, will try to win back Corangamite, lost in 2007.

This is a substantial renewal in Victoria but NSW is moving more slowly. Danna Vale in Hughes has announced she is going. But Alby Schultz in Hume and Pat Farmer in Macarthur have renominated. Bronwyn Bishop and Philip Ruddock, both in to-die-for heartland seats, say (so far) they are determined to stay. Some NSW Liberals insist the impression their state is static is misleading. Federal MP Scott Morrison points out there was some change last time, which brought both him and Alex Hawke in, so there is less room for turnover. (As for the long termers not contributing: party sources say Bishop talks at almost every party meeting — it's the content that gets backs up.)

The party needs maximum change at next year's federal election. There is already a high risk of it being a negative poll for the Liberals — one in which they lose more seats, making their job of winning back power harder. If that's going to happen, all the more important to ensure they at least extract something positive out of the election, bringing in as many people as possible who'll be part of a future Liberal government. If the number of Liberals has shrunk further after the election, those left must contain a substantial critical mass of vigorous new talent — the sort of live wires who came in for Labor in 2007 and are now junior ministers and parliamentary secretaries.

Older and experienced members can be valuable to a party in opposition but this is diminished when, as is likely, the Liberals are looking at a long time in the wilderness. Shelf life in Parliament is related to the time people have been there, and to political circumstances. Someone who arrives in their 50s can seem young; someone in their 50s who's been there 20 years may be shopworn.

Apart from renewal, the Liberals also have the challenge of Bennelong. Who will they put up for the formidable task of trying to unsettle Maxine McKew? Former tennis star John Alexander, one of the Bradfield losers, is volunteering. Alexander reached the final six out of the 17 candidates in Bradfield — the quarter finals in tennis jargon — and impressed some Liberal heavies as more than just a famous sporting name. An Alexander candidacy in Bennelong could be a lot of fun for locals and observers alike. Weekly tennis days and the like (Alexander had another tennis great, Ken Rosewell, help in Bradfield). As one Liberal wag says, the slogan could be "follow the bouncing ball". It would be an interesting diversion, even if you'd wager on McKew winning the match.

Michelle Grattan is political editor of The Age.