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National Times

Weakest link found by the key players

Peter Hartcher
September 8, 2010

Opinion

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Julia Gillard wins the day

Julia Gillard promises to heed the lesson handed to Labor at the election and govern with a new style of openness.

JULIA GILLARD won the contest to lead the next government because of her weakness, as well as her strengths.

The two independents who crowned Gillard yesterday wanted the leader who is more likely to run Parliament to its full three-year term.

One of the new kingmakers, Tony Windsor, said that Tony Abbott was more likely to run to a new election as soon as possible. Asked why he thought so, Windsor replied: "Because I think they would be more likely to win."

Labor, however, is "more likely to be here for a longer period of time''.

The longevity of the new government, he added, was "key" to his decision. In other words, Windsor has chosen deliberately to side with the party that he thinks is more afraid of facing the Australian people at another election.

Asked at his press conference specifically if he were favouring the party that was less likely to win the support of the voters at an election, he replied: "That's my call."

And it was also the call of many Coalition backbenchers, he added.

It was a strikingly candid remark from the member for New England. Together with the independent member for Lyne, Rob Oakeshott, his support for Labor will give Gillard the barest possible majority - 76 seats in a 150-seat chamber.

This lays bare the calculus of self-interest. On his own confession, Windsor is prepared to support the weaker party so long as he can prolong his own position of extraordinary leverage in holding the balance of power.

Like an insecure lover seeking an emotionally needy partner, Windsor has found happiness in a dependent government.

And Gillard's strengths? Windsor and Oakeshott said that they favoured a Labor government because it was the party more likely to attempt ambitious reforms.

Indeed, where Labor has lost its political spine on big, transformative reform measures like an emissions trading scheme, this pair of independents will try to inject new steel.

Specifically, both cited Labor's national broadband policy, and its approach to climate change and renewable energy.

Labor's plan for a world's-best, fibre-to-the-home internet system was "an enormous opportunity for regional Australia to engage with the infrastructure of this century", said Windsor.

On climate change, Oakeshott wants a government that will impose a price on carbon emissions. Labor is notionally committed to this, though it has wavered on specifics. The Coalition has ruled it out.

And Windsor is an enthusiast for renewable energy: "It's obvious to me that regional Australia would be a major beneficiary of renewable energy opportunities."

Oakeshott cited a third key policy concern, "the crisis in regional education". He was critical of the cuts that the Coalition had threatened.

Both men were blunt in stating that they would use the newfound power that electoral fortune has granted them for the benefit of rural Australia. Under both Labor and Coalition governments, Windsor said, country people were "always sidelined".

No longer: "This is about using the political system to the advantage of the people we represent," said Windsor.

And so it is. Gillard has offered the independents a "regional package" with a notional price tag of $10 billion, of which $1.1 billion is net new funding.

Oakeshott said that "no one living in the city needs to be scared - we are looking for equity" for country people.

Further, the independents have persuaded Labor to agree to a national summit on tax reform by next June.

"This is not going to be a weak Parliament," said Oakeshott.

"It's going to be a strong Parliament."

It is this paradoxical combination - Gillard's political weakness and policy strength - that proved critical in winning the chance to lead Australia.

Poll: Will the belated 76-74 election result lead to a stable government for Australia?

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188 comments

  • The sooner the libs realize that Phoney Tony won't cut the mustard, the better for them. You need more than 4 slogans to win decisively. A 1.5% swing is hardly a landslide.

    Commenter
    red
    Date and time
    September 08, 2010, 7:56AM
  • Pointless to cite Gillards "weakness" as a problem. No one except possibly you wants a new election. We haven't woken up from the last one.

    Commenter
    Dave Elbow
    Date and time
    September 08, 2010, 8:01AM
  • That's not fair, Peter. Tony Windsor does not seem to want power for the sake of it, but to ensure as much stability for the government as voted by the people. That is his given reason for backing Labor, for he surmised that the Coalition would be far more likely to rush back to the polls at the first opportunity. He and they might think they were likely to then win, but Windsor has backed his brief of trying to ensure that the current government--motley though it might be--is the one given the opportunity. As voted by the Australian people. That seems to be from a man of integrity to me.

    Commenter
    colin smith
    Date and time
    September 08, 2010, 8:02AM
  • To maintain a three year government Mr Windsor has not listened to the voters and he has reiterated this in his comment about the LNP winning if they went to an election before that term ended.
    In other words he has clung on to his own grab for power and ignored the majority of voters, poor form indeed.
    Stability is not necessarily the golden fleece, the imposition of a four year term here in NSW is choking the state.

    The man will, we have been told, probably retire after this term, all up a selfish self serving decision.

    Commenter
    Mayday
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    September 08, 2010, 7:42AM
  • Get over yourself Hartcher. You've been searching for blood ever since Rudd got flicked. The deal, for now, is done. The reason it's done is because Gillard will try to work with people. Abbott, typically, would not. Gillard will at least try to do some positive things, Abbott will continue to criticise and call for cuts. Perhaps the coalition would've won another election - who knows. Certainly the shrill Pine and the grating Hockey would've thought so. Despite what the coalition has said, they did not nearly garner enough votes, seats, legitimacy to form government. Near enough is not good enough and whinging about it will get them nowhere fast.

    Commenter
    cobber
    Location
    sydney
    Date and time
    September 08, 2010, 7:47AM
  • The weakest link the two independents honed into was Abbott, not Gillard.

    Abbott showed he has no positive vision of the future for Australia, just memories of (and yearnings to return us all to) the past.

    I for one want to live in the 21st century, not the 1950's.

    Commenter
    Andy S
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    September 08, 2010, 8:15AM
  • What is all the fuss about the National Broadband?
    Why are Regionals crying out for it? It was promised in 2007. By 2010 it was in some Tasmanian backwater, and is being looked at in Kiama. By 2010 will it suddenly appear in a bloc around Windsor and Oakshotte's electorates?
    Both hypocrites trying to lengthen their time in the sun. The Labor back room boys will soon be knocking on your doors.

    Commenter
    rodit
    Location
    Wollongong
    Date and time
    September 08, 2010, 8:15AM
  • ...

    Tony and Rob both made it clear they wanted stability. Only sore losers would represent that as weakness.

    It will take a strong leader to accept the will of the people and govern for Australia instead of the party.

    Tony through his sour grapes response has indicated he is unwilling to accept this government and will spend his time undermining it. Where is the strength, leadership and will of the people in that?

    I for one will accept the decision the independents made. I agree with them that there is little if any difference between the two parties and in the last decade we have descended into politics by media and polls.

    I hope to see a better behaved parliament that looks seriously at what is good for Australia and leaves the party outside the door.

    Commenter
    Steve
    Date and time
    September 08, 2010, 7:45AM
  • Must say very happy that the independents took their time and made a considered choice (and thankfully made both side sweat).

    I think everyone who wants to run the line that this is a fragile alliance and that we'll be back at the polls has to understand that the independents reviewed the entire policies and costings of both sides and made their choice.

    This means that they are generally satisfied by labor policies - whilst their may be some regional sweetners the general policy is acceptable to those persons. So its not like we're going to have legislation getting blocked in the house of reps over and over to cause an unstable government.

    So for all those people irrationally calling for new elections (coalition supporters) settle down and enjoy the next three years - i know i will!

    Commenter
    Knight Rider
    Date and time
    September 08, 2010, 7:28AM
  • Rob Oakeshott should never given a mike, doesn't he love grandstanding!

    The independents took advantage of the situation. Completely lost the confidence of most people.

    Oakshott, should become a minister.. People can then hold him accountable..

    He might quite have to work for a living as opposed to talk for one.

    Commenter
    Dan
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    September 08, 2010, 8:27AM

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Will the belated 76-74 election result lead to a stable government for Australia?

Poll closed 9 Sep, 2010

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Total votes: 24056

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