Gillard throws cash at teachers
Julia Gillard's cash incentives for teachers who spend more time involved in community issues are probably insulting and miss the point, says Ross Gittins.
- Autoplay OnOff
- Video feedback
- Video settings
THE election battle has got a lot meatier, with an announcement on broadband from the opposition and the government's Murray-Darling blueprint providing the policy wonks with plenty to chew on.
But beyond those, the fundamental debate is firmly focused on costings: whether the opposition numbers add up, when they will be submitted for Treasury/Finance examination, what shortfalls there may or may not be. Opposition finance spokesman Andrew Robb got a hard time over when he'll put in costings - but then so did Treasurer Wayne Swan when he tried to prosecute the case against the Coalition. Three years ago, in opposition, Labor dragged its feet.
The slightest slip is hazardous. Pity the functionary (or shadow minister) who put - or failed to spot - a decimal point in the wrong place in Robb's press release.
In prosecuting the economic debate, former PM Kevin Rudd was singing from the same sheet as his colleagues, as he campaigned in Moreton yesterday. ''Mr Abbott believes arrogantly he has this election in the bag and therefore is seeking to avoid scrutiny on his competence as an economic manager, particularly at a time when we have a $7 billion black hole in his costings," Rudd said. "That's why he is seeking to avoid scrutiny."
(Incidentally, Rudd might be on message but he's as fond as ever of a touch of one-upmanship. Yesterday was a school day for the opposition and past and present Labor leaders. Tony Abbott visited his daughter's school; Julia Gillard went back to her old school, while Rudd went to a school where quite a few students speak Chinese, which allowed him to show off his skills.)
As it approaches the turn into the home straight to Saturday week, economics and male voters are weighing on Labor's collective mind. The former is the key debate it must win, the latter the big demographic it has to woo.
Of course, elections are about dozens of issues and you can slice and dice the electorate many ways. But Labor has been honing its efforts (ever since the ''real Julia'' challenged Abbott to an economic debate) to convince voters, and especially males, that Abbott is an economic risk and Gillard knows what she's doing. In political terms, economics and men are intertwined: economic management, including how it affects their individual and family circumstances, is high on men's concerns at elections.
Much has been said about the gender gap in this election. Although this has varied in the polls, Labor knows that while two factors are working for Labor with women - a female PM and some female resistance to Abbott - it still has to struggle to get the men.
John Stirton, from Nielsen, says: ''From Labor's point of view it is men that must be won over.'' In last week's Nielsen poll, Labor trailed among men by 45 per cent to 55 per cent on a two-party basis. Abbott was preferred PM among men 47-43 per cent. Gillard's approval rating among males was 46 per cent - compared with her 57 per cent approval among women. Among women, Gillard is preferred PM 55-36 per cent and Labor leads 54-46 per cent.
Compared with the final few polls during the 2007 campaign, ''this is a big change'', Stirton says. Statistically, there was little difference in 2007. A majority of both sexes supported Labor. ''Labor has largely held on to female voters but lost male voters'' since the last election.
Big gender differences are unusual, Stirton says. In the five years before Gillard became PM, the average gender difference on the two-party vote was 2 per cent, which is normal sampling variation. Neither party was particularly favoured by one sex.
In the last four polls, the minimum two-party difference between the sexes has been 2 per cent and the average difference has been 7 per cent, with men more likely to be supporting the Coalition in all four polls.
Stirton says the differences may yet disappear. ''If they do disappear, the big question is will the women end up voting with the men for Tony Abbott or will the men end up voting with the women for Julia Gillard?''
While Labor is worrying about men, it is not forgetting the women, either. The more of them Gillard gets, the fewer men she needs. Gillard has unveiled big initiatives in education, one of the issues always of prime concern to women. Also there is the ''soft'' campaign: Gillard this week is back in a major women's mag, this time as guest editor of Woman's Day where (of course) she publishes partner Tim Mathieson's lamb roast recipe. While Gillard is working to improve the men's vote, the first bloke is tending to the women electors as well as to his woman.
.gif)
55 comments
More comments
Comments are now closed